A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves even with the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Each authors two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
